Stark Warning As Economists Say Unchecked Fuel Imports Could Trigger Fresh Wave Of Deindustrialisation In Nigeria
By A1NEWS International Economic Desk / May 26, 2026
ABUJA, NIGERIA –The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has strongly rejected growing calls for wider liberalisation of refined petroleum imports under the guise of curbing monopoly concerns around the Dangote Refinery, warning that such policies could weaken Nigeria’s industrial future and reverse gains in domestic production.
In a strongly worded policy statement released Monday, the economic think tank described attempts to label the Dangote Refinery as a monopolistic threat as “simplistic, fundamentally flawed and grossly unfair,” insisting that Nigeria should be protecting strategic local investments rather than encouraging import dependence.
The intervention comes amid increasing debate within Nigeria’s oil and gas sector over market competition, fuel pricing, domestic refining capacity, and the future role of imports following the operational expansion of the multi-billion-dollar Dangote Refinery.
CPPE Raises Alarm Over Push For Fuel Import Liberalisation
The Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, warned that excessive import liberalisation in a structurally weak economy could trigger another cycle of industrial collapse similar to what Nigeria experienced in previous decades.
In the statement titled “Import Liberalisation and The Risk of Deindustrialisation in Nigeria,” Yusuf argued that the real path to competition should be the encouragement of more local refining investments—not the flooding of the market with imported petroleum products.
According to him, Nigeria has only recently begun building meaningful domestic refining capacity after decades of dependence on imported fuel despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers.
He noted that the Dangote Refinery, alongside emerging modular refineries across the country, represents one of the most consequential industrial investments in modern African history and should be strategically supported rather than undermined.
“Dangote Did Not Destroy State-Owned Refineries” — CPPE
Responding directly to accusations that the Dangote Refinery could dominate Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, Yusuf insisted that the company merely filled a vacuum created by years of public sector failure.
“Attempts to portray Dangote Refinery as a monopolistic threat are simplistic, fundamentally flawed and grossly unfair,” he stated.
“It did not cause the collapse of state-owned refineries. It simply undertook an extraordinary industrial investment at a scale unprecedented in Africa.”
The CPPE boss argued that Nigeria risks sending negative signals to both local and foreign investors if large-scale industrial investments are demonised after investors commit massive capital under difficult economic conditions.
According to him, scale naturally creates efficiency, lowers production costs, strengthens supply chains, and deepens industrial competitiveness.
He stressed that large market share alone does not amount to monopoly abuse, noting that anti-competition concerns can be managed through regulatory institutions and existing competition laws.
Historical Lessons: “Import Liberalisation Destroyed Nigerian Industries”
The CPPE statement drew parallels between current calls for unrestricted petroleum imports and earlier liberalisation policies that contributed to the collapse of several Nigerian manufacturing sectors.
According to Yusuf, indiscriminate import policies played a major role in the decline of major domestic industries, including:
- Dunlop and Michelin tyre manufacturing plants
- Textile mills
- Automobile assembly plants
- Battery production companies
- Pharmaceutical manufacturing firms
- Electronics assembly industries
The organisation argued that many Nigerian companies were not destroyed purely because of inefficiency, but because they were exposed to unfair external competition while operating under crippling infrastructure challenges.
These challenges, CPPE said, include:
- High energy costs
- Poor logistics systems
- Weak transport infrastructure
- Expensive financing
- Multiple taxation
- Regulatory bottlenecks
AfCFTA Raises Fresh Concerns Over Local Industry Survival
CPPE also warned that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could become economically disruptive for Nigeria if domestic production capacity is not urgently strengthened.
Yusuf cautioned that trade liberalisation without competitiveness would ultimately expose Nigerian industries to external shocks and foreign dominance.
“Trade liberalisation without competitiveness is not integration; it is deindustrialisation,” he declared.
The think tank argued that Nigeria must first build industrial strength before embracing unrestricted trade policies.
Food Importation Policies Cited As Warning Signal
The economic policy group further pointed to Nigeria’s previous food import policies as evidence of how excessive liberalisation can damage local production.
According to CPPE, large-scale food imports weakened domestic agricultural investments and disrupted local value chains.
“Many Nigerian farmers are yet to recover from the disruptions created by those policy measures,” Yusuf stated.
He warned that the refining sector must not be subjected to the same policy mistakes that undermined agriculture and manufacturing.
“Energy Security Is National Security”
CPPE maintained that Nigeria’s inability to refine its own petroleum products despite vast crude oil reserves remains a major economic vulnerability.
The organisation argued that true economic resilience depends on local production, refining, manufacturing, and value addition—not import dependency.
“A country that cannot refine its own petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer exposes itself to profound economic vulnerability. Energy security is national security,” Yusuf said.
He added that countries such as the United States and China continue to protect strategic industries through tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policies despite promoting global trade.
According to him, economic self-reliance should not be mistaken for isolationism but understood as pragmatic national economic planning.
Growing Debate Over Nigeria’s Refining Future
The statement comes at a critical period in Nigeria’s energy transition debate, especially as stakeholders continue to assess the impact of the Dangote Refinery on fuel pricing, supply stability, import reduction, and foreign exchange demand.
While supporters argue that domestic refining will reduce dependence on imported fuel and strengthen the naira, critics fear that market concentration could weaken competition if other refineries fail to scale up operations.
However, CPPE insists that the solution lies in encouraging additional local investors into refining rather than dismantling incentives for existing producers.
The latest intervention by CPPE highlights the growing ideological divide over Nigeria’s economic direction — whether the country should prioritise import liberalisation or aggressively protect domestic industrial capacity.
As debates continue around fuel imports, refinery competition, and energy policy, analysts say the decisions taken in the coming months could significantly shape Nigeria’s industrial future, investment climate, and long-term economic sovereignty.
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